Erik, you might be right, but it is not over until it is over.

Russia is often compared to a bear. When is a bear most dangerous? When it is deadly wounded.

Why does Russia use only about 20% of its military power to conquer Ukraine? Did they send their best units or those from the bench? What if they keep their best formations for the confrontation with NATO?

Lastly, experts on Russia say that Putin has an itch to press that red button. What is your analysis worth if he uses it?