Erik, you underestimate the professionalism of the Russian army. They have centuries of tradition. They are likely corrupted and might appear disorganized. But they have deep reserves that allow them to bear losses when reorganizing in response to failures.
There is no way to win this war militarily for either side. Writers like you and me have to do it. We have to spread the message that Putin and his cronies are war criminals who have no honorable exit. Standing in front of the judges in The Hague is their only destination. Russians need to get the message that cutting their losses is their best option. As you might guess, I wrote about it: “How could we end the war in Ukraine tomorrow?”