That is my point. The old man is bluffing. Except for marginal extreme nationalists, there is no appetite for war with a brotherly Ukraine. If we stand firm that any attempt to take Donbas from Ukraine would mean war, Putin will have to back off.

If we let it go with “extreme sanctions,” Russia has enough cash reserves to wait until sanctions will harm us and will be lifted. But then, he will ask for Novorossiya, and the war will be unavoidable.