Your statement reminds me of a conversation with the reviewer of my book in 1980 in Poland. In my book, speculating about the future of Poland, I brought a possibility of weakening of the Soviet Union. My reviewer accused me of being unrealistic by taking the fall of the Soviet Union under consideration. My question, “Do you believe it would last for eternity?” killed the conversation then. Mine was the last laugh.
Yes, Putin acts assuming that thinking like yours prevails.
Our message should be that Putin has no honorable exit. Neither have Russians when following him. Cutting the losses should be their best strategy. It is simple. It is moral. It is logical.
The louder we say it, the more likely history will follow this path.